Finishing school - The West's 10 biggest questions

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Finishing school: West 10 questions

The West's 10 biggest questions

By JEFF CAPLAN
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

The Dallas Mavericks have preached all season about finishing the job. Emerging from the disappointment of losing in the NBA Finals came a stronger Mavs resolve. Finishing with the best record in the NBA, the Mavs will have home-court advantage throughout, an especially important edge in the dog-eat-dog Western Conference. The defensive-minded Spurs and the run-and-gun Suns are capable of going deep, and even the Tracy McGrady-led Rockets are perched to make things interesting. So who's going to come out of the West? Hall of Famer and TNT analyst Charles Barkley said it's the Spurs, ever so slightly, over the Mavs. "I've got them 1 and 1A," Barkley said. "Over a seven-game series, the Spurs have more of a habit of playing defense every single play. I think Avery has to remind his team every single game, 'We're a defensive team.' The Spurs, when they wake up in the morning, Gregg Popovich does not have to say anything."

10) Are the Denver Nuggets a real threat to San Antonio and beyond?

Maybe next season. Still, Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson reversed the outlook by helping the Nuggets average 109.3 points during a 9-1 April before their meaningless season finale against first-round foe San Antonio. The Nuggets were swooning at 7-8 in March while playing a decidedly tougher schedule. Still, the about-face has been impressive. Anthony, a 6-foot-8 forward, averaged 28.5 points and 6.5 rebounds during the 9-1 run. Iverson put up 22.8 points and 6.8 assists, and forward Nene was terrific, averaging 15.6 points and 7.9 boards in those 10 games. But, the Spurs make their living on defensive stops. Only Phoenix has more wins than Denver when scoring 100 or more points. Denver's up-tempo style comes with turnovers, but the Nuggets are also second in the league in steals and eighth in blocks. They're a strong rebounding team and must continue to be against the Spurs to trigger the transition game.

9) Is Utah out of gas?

No. Even though the Jazz had a rough end to the season and lost home-court advantage to the Rockets, if it stays healthy and plays intelligently, it is dangerous. Andrei Kirilenko recently returned from a broken finger and brings significant help on the defensive end. The Jazz's biggest weakness is its playoff inexperience. Point guard Deron Williams had a sensational sophomore season, but his next playoff game will be his first. Same for leading scorer and rebounder Carlos Boozer. Utah's playoff savvy must come from Derek Fisher, a former member of the Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O'Neal Lakers title teams; Mehmet Okur, a role player for Detroit three years ago; and Kirilenko and Matt Harpring. The Jazz must do what it does best: rebound and run an efficient offense in which five players average in double figures.

8) Can Tracy McGrady stay healthy and win a playoff series?

In his 10th season, this should be the year that Tracy McGrady finally wins one. McGrady's missed only 10 games because of his back, and he powered the Rockets while Yao Ming missed 33 games with a broken leg. When healthy, they might be the most lethal duo going in the NBA. McGrady averaged 24.6 points and 6.5 assists this season. In the 21 games Yao's played since his return, the Rockets are 16-5 and he's averaged 24.0 points and 9.4 rebounds. The supporting cast has also improved. Shane Battier provided the work ethic and leadership the Rockets needed. He and guard Luther Head both shoot better than 42 percent from beyond the arc. The Rockets slip into scoring funks at times and have had trouble holding leads, but this has quietly become a very dangerous club.

7) Can Kobe Bryant carry the Lakers past the first round?

He barely kept them in the playoffs, so getting past the Suns would seem Herculean. Even with a basically healthy team now, the Lakers haven't figured out how to snap out of their tailspin. They struggled to 9-15 in March and April even though Bryant was putting up some of the most magnificent individual performances in the history of the game, including four consecutive 50-point games in March. Bryant averaged 31.6 points for the season. He tried to be a distributor, getting his teammates involved earlier in the season, but as the Lakers swooned with key injuries to Lamar Odom and Luke Walton, he realized he had to take over. Odom is the second-leading scorer at 15.9 points per game, but he played in just 56 games. Walton, the third-leading scorer at 11.4 points, played in just 60 games. It's difficult to see how the Lakers will outscore the Suns.

6) Can the Suns win the title with their offense-first style?

Yes. While it is true that playoff basketball slows down, becomes more physical and far more dependent on half-court sets, the Suns are better equipped to get it done with center Amare Stoudemire healthy and a cast of excellent 3-point shooters. And here's a news flash: The Suns do play defense, it's just harder to recognize. Guard Raja Bell and forward Shawn Marion are both candidates for the NBA's All-Defensive team. Phoenix gives up 102.9 points a game, one of 11 teams to give up more than 100 points, but they score a league-best 110.2 behind the creativity of Steve Nash. That 7.30 scoring differential is second-best in the league behind the Spurs and one place ahead of the Mavericks. The Suns must rebound better and play solid team defense that doesn't allow easy lanes to the basket, and they have to get late-game stops.

5) Do the Spurs have the supporting cast to make a deep run?

They're certainly not as strong as a few years ago when Robert Horry was still "Big Shot Rob." Those days are over. Horry, Michael Finley and Brent Barry are all showing their age, which is why coach Gregg Popovich opted to make one of his top three players, Manu Ginobili, his sixth man. Thanks to Ginobili's career-high 16.5 points a game, the Spurs actually have one of the higher scoring benches in the league. Barry averages 8.5 points and is a solid 3-point threat, while 7-footer Francisco Elson and 6-10 forward Fabricio Oberto, both of whom sometimes start, are asked to defend and rebound. Popovich has done a good job of limiting the Big Three's minutes during the season, finding the right spots to give Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker rest. The Spurs, as usual, must win with team defense, which they are doing again, allowing a league-low 90.1 points a game.

4) Can Don Nelson pull a fast one on the Mavericks?

Wouldn't he just love that? The short answer is no, but Nellie's Warriors have become an intriguing team. The trade that brought Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington from the Pacers was excellent. They fit Nelson's up-tempo, small-ball philosophy and, next to Phoenix, the Warriors might be the best entertainment in the NBA. But entertainment is one thing. Determined and playoff-hardened basketball is another. The Mavs are too solid and too deep to lose a seven-game series to a team with defensive deficiencies -- although the Warriors do have quick hands, leading the league in steals and getting easy transition baskets. But Golden State relies too much on the 3-point shot and doesn't have a dependable center to clog the lane and rebound. Point guard Baron Davis is a heady leader and high-flying teammates Jason Richardson, Jackson, Harrington, Monta Ellis and others could make it interesting if the Mavs get caught up in the Warriors' game.

3) How important are Josh Howard's and Dirk Nowitzki's ankles?

The team's two All-Stars put a scare into Mavs fans over the last few weeks of the season -- Howard on more than one occasion -- yet both players rebound quickly from sprains and tweaks. Obviously, the loss of Nowitzki, an MVP candidate, for any period of time would be calamitous, and Howard's versatility at both ends would create a significant void if he went down. But, that's why Avery Johnson has been protective of both players down the stretch. Both appear healthy and ready to roll. Nowitzki leads the Mavs in scoring (24.6 points) and rebounding (8.9), while Howard is second in scoring (18.9) and third in rebounding (6.8). The Mavs have proven that they can win without one or the other in the lineup, but they wouldn't want to test it in a best-of-seven series, especially as they get deeper into the playoffs.

2) Will last season's Finals meltdown hurt the Mavs this time around?

The Mavericks say they've already answered that question by posting the franchise's best-ever record. They came into the season with a mantra of finishing -- finishing each play, each quarter, each half, each game and, yes, finishing in the Finals. If anything, the Mavs say last season's Finals fiasco worked to make them stronger. They learned their mistakes, they say, such as settling for jump shots instead of penetrating against the Miami Heat. The Mavs used their disappointment to hone in on their total game. They rank in the top 10 in five key categories: ninth in scoring (100.0), fifth in field-goal percentage (46.7), fourth in points allowed (92.8), seventh in field-goal percentage defense (44.7) and eighth in rebounding (41.9). That's why the Mavs say this postseason is all about a title or bust.

1) Will the survivor of the West be worn down by the time the Finals roll around?

Considering the top five teams in the West all have more than 50 victories and two have surpassed 60, with only the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers in the East having hit 50 wins, the West is poised to be an exhaustive three rounds. But let's get real. Outside of the Pistons and a Miami Heat team that will not have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, can anyone else in the East come close to competing with the West? The Mavs are the favorite to get their first ring, with the Suns, also looking for a first title, and the Spurs, who would face the Suns in the second round, both strong candidates. The Rockets, with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, would face the Mavs in the second round if both advance. Still, despite the treacherous path, the West winner should be able to close the deal.

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Is there more 2 it? East 10 questions

The East's 10 biggest questions

By JEFF CAPLAN
Star-Telegram Staff Writer

If LeBron James had more help and if the Toronto Raptors weren't just glad to be here, the East might come down to more than a two-horse race. "Whoever wins that second-round series between [Detroit] and Miami is going to win the East to be honest with you," Hall of Famer and TNT analyst Charles Barkley said. "I think [Detroit] has been the best team consistently. I love the Chris Webber addition. But they're going to have to beat Miami in that second round." The biggest question on South Beach is just how well Dwyane Wade can adapt to playing with an injured shoulder. In five games since returning, Wade averaged 14.6 points on 27-of-61 shooting (44.3 percent), down from his season average of 27.4 points and 48.4 percent. In Wade's absence, an inspired Shaquille O'Neal lifted Miami to a 16-7 record and the Southeast Division title. Detroit has played in fits-and-starts, but with a steely group of playoff veterans such as Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince, Rip Hamilton and Webber, the Pistons could be making a return to the Finals.

10) Can Dwight Howard and Orlando surprise Detroit?

The short answer is no. The long answer is that Dwight Howard looks to be a dominant force in the league for years to come. With the right mix around him, the Magic might become the toast of the Eastern Conference. Hopes were high early this season, but fizzled with a mediocre stretch after the All-Star break. Only a soft conference kept the under-.500 Magic from falling out of the playoffs. The bright side is the 6-foot-11, 265-pound Howard keeps getting better. He averaged a career-high 17.6 points and 12.3 rebounds, leading the team in both categories. He's increased his scoring each season and has averaged a double-double all three seasons since coming straight out of high school. Orlando will rally around the fact that, while 0-3 against Detroit this season, the losses have come by four, five and five points.

9) Is Washington cooked without Gilbert Arenas?

The short answer is the Wizards have absolutely no chance to get out of the first round. Gilbert Arenas was averaging 28.4 points and 6.0 assists a game when he went down with a knee injury April 4 early in a 108-100 loss against Charlotte. Including that game, the Wizards have lost seven of nine and slipped from the sixth seed to seventh. At .500, the Wizards square off against LeBron James and the Cavaliers. Washington still has some scoring power with Antawn Jamison (19.8 points a game) and DeShawn Stevenson (11.2), but the Wizards' biggest problem is at the other end. They allowed 105.0 points a game, third-worst in the NBA.

8) Are Vince Carter and Jason Kidd capable of carrying the Nets?

The Nets' organization is advertising the playoffs as "It's a Brand New Season," but the team must have gotten the memo at the start of April. After a 12-15 slump through February and March, the Nets have put things together against a weak schedule to head into the playoffs with eight wins in their last 11 games. And this team still has two players who helped it get to the Finals not long ago: Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. Kidd averaged 9.2 assists this season, and Jefferson is a steady all-around player. Add in high-scoring swingman Vince Carter, who has been sensational at 25.3 points and 6.0 rebounds a game, and you have a dangerous offensive team. Perhaps the most intriguing reason why the Nets might roll into the second round is Carter's return to Toronto, where "Vinsanity" first took root before that relationship soured during the 2004-05 season. After Carter left Toronto, he admitted that he didn't always try his hardest.

7) Are the Raptors a threat to make a deep push?

This season has been a raging success for Chris Bosh and the Raptors, winning the Atlantic Division, wrapping up the No. 3 seed and bringing playoff basketball back to Toronto for the first time since 2002. But, in the NBA, there's usually a learning curve to this playoff stuff, and the Raptors have a lot of learning to do. Of the six Raptors who have started 20 or more games this season, Bosh, T.J. Ford, Anthony Parker, Jorge Garbajosa and Joey Graham have never played in a playoff game. So which playoff vets will the Raptors lean on? There's Morris Peterson, who last played in the postseason with the Raptors five years ago, and Rasho Nesterovic, who the Spurs ran off after last season. As long as Toronto takes care of the home court -- it was 17-24 on the road -- it could see the second round, but it will take some steely nerves to beat the playoff-savvy Nets before looking beyond.

6) Did Chicago seal its fate by falling out of the No. 2 seed?

All Chicago had to do was win at New Jersey in the season finale, and the No. 2 seed and a matchup with struggling Washington was theirs. But the Bulls couldn't take care of business and dropped to the No. 5 seed even though they finished the regular season with the East's third-best record. Now the Bulls must open with the defending champion Heat, the team that sent them home last season in the first round. The only saving grace is the Bulls do have home-court advantage, as well as Ben Gordon. Gordon, whether he starts or comes off the bench, is the Bulls' most consistent scoring threat. He's averaging 21.4 points -- hitting 41.8 percent of his 3-pointers -- 3.6 assists and 3.1 rebounds. But in a league where size does matter, Gordon and the Bulls will have a hard time matching up with Dwyane Wade, and the Bulls' other Ben, Ben Wallace, is going to have to be at his best against a resurgent Shaquille O'Neal.

5) Does LeBron James have enough help around him?

The fact that LeBron James led the Cavaliers to 50 wins and the East's No. 2 seed on the last night of the season is remarkable in itself. James has little offensive help, yet there's something scary about this team now that it has a favorable playoff path. James took some heat this season for not producing the same eye-popping numbers he did last season. That seems ridiculous considering he averaged 27.3 points (28.2 percent of the Cavs' scoring), 6.7 rebounds (15.4 percent of the team's rebounds) and 6.0 assists (28.9 percent of the team's assists). The Cavs' second-best player is Larry Hughes, who averages 14.9 points and shoots 40.0 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from beyond the 3-point arc. Lumbering center Zydrunas Ilgauskas averages 11.9 points, and Drew Gooden averages 11.1.

4) Is Chris Webber the final piece to Detroit's return to the Finals?

In 18 games with the 76ers and 43 with the Pistons, Chris Webber's statistics are nearly identical: about 11 points a game, three assists, six to eight rebounds and roughly 30 minutes a game. But his value has never been greater. Webber knocked Nazr Mohammed, a playoff dud last season in San Antonio, out of the starting lineup, and the former Sacramento King removes all kinds of pressure from temperamental forward Rasheed Wallace. Now the Pistons have a legitimate low-post threat, who can not only score but is an excellent passer. And that only benefits shooters such as Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince. With Webber and Wallace, the Pistons now at least have different ways to attack Shaquille O'Neal, if the Heat and Pistons meet in the second round.

3) Is Shaq's resurgence short-lived or will it carry through the playoffs?

Just when it looked as if the Heat's bid to defend its championship was over when Dwyane Wade suffered a shoulder injury Feb. 21, The Diesel put his game into gear. Fresh off his own return from a lengthy knee injury, Shaquille O'Neal put the Heat on his back and carried it down the stretch, surpassing Washington for the Southeast title. In the 26 games O'Neal played during Wade's absence, he averaged 19.0 points and 7.9 rebounds as the Heat went 17-9. And the one game that will shine brightest if the Heat and Pistons meet in the second round will be the game Shaq had against Detroit in an 85-82 victory March 2: 31 points on 12-of-16 shooting, 15 rebounds and six assists. Shaq has played in only 40 games this season and he appears to be in much better shape than last year. So why not expect a Finals return?

2) Will Dwyane Wade be the dominating slasher he was last year?

That's his game, and if he didn't think he'd be able to play the way he must to be successful, he probably would have opted for shoulder surgery and prepared for next season. Still, Wade has only played five games since returning from the injury. His scoring and minutes are down, but he's just been working himself into game shape. The first time he gets walloped on that shoulder will show just how much pain Wade can tolerate. But it would be foolish to underestimate the reigning Finals MVP. On that subject, Wade feels like he still has something to prove. He's heard it all about how the Mavs gave away the title. He wants to prove once and for all that the Heat deserved that title and another one as well. It's basically the same team. If Wade's the same player, he might get two.

1) Does anyone in the East stand a chance against the West?

Just because the top five teams in the West could all challenge the best in the East, that doesn't mean the top two in the East can't mount their own challenges. Last season was proof when the Heat rallied from 0-2 in the Finals to defeat the Mavericks. The odds, however, are heavily stacked against the East. No team has played as consistently as the Mavs, Spurs or Suns. Even the Rockets, which endured a 33-game stretch without Yao Ming, finished with just one fewer win than the Pistons, the East's No. 1 seed. Still, the Pistons and Heat won it all in two of the last three seasons. The Pistons are a complete team with veteran know-how, while the Heat have Shaq and Dwyane Wade to power a squad that proved it could swallow egos and play roles last season. The West might have more overall firepower, but quantity doesn't guarantee a ring.